Polar Vortex Forecast February 2024. For the gefsv12 forecast issued on february 12, ~90% of the individual model runs predict a reversal of the vortex winds (top, thin magenta lines), accompanied by a sharp increase in stratospheric temperature (thick pink line). So what is happening now?
This major warming status will be brief and the winds are forecast to become westerly again, strengthening to their near normal state in the next week. Some forecast models project that the arctic oscillation, which approximates the strength of the polar vortex, will intensify into next week and weaken the week after, shifting toward its.